Conference Final Predictions; The Elaborated Version

I know how to pick 'em, don't I? I got two losers in Game 1! But hey, that's why its best of seven, right?! I basically went 50% in the last round, so you could consult with me, or flip a friggin' coin and probably do just fine. I put my faith in the Canucks as my preseason pick, and they flopped like a fish out of water. Woulda been nice to see that one come to fruition. But the Flyers made me look like a genius, stealing back the series in seven games after being on the ropes. Montreal decided to defy the odds once again, so I'm not going against them again, but it didn't look too Cinderella-y last night. Honestly I think its a crap shoot on whoever comes out of the West is probably your eventual winner. Lets break it down a little further for you ignants...

#7 Philadelphia Flyers vs. #8 Montreal Canadiens
I don't think anyone could've predicted that matchup for the conference finals. Once again, the East proves that the seedings are meaningless. Montreal took out the top team in the League (points-wise), then went on to defeat the defending Champs to head on to the Conference Finals. Not too shabby for a team that had the worst record heading into the post. The Habs success is hinging on three things, maybe four, depending on how much you "believe." 1) They've bought into the system, and its working against the best teams in the East, 2) Their triggermen are clicking at just the right time, and its more than one guy doing it. Even though Cammalleri is stealing the show. And 3) Halak. Up until last night, a minus one game per series, this guy is a fucking machine. He's playing like he's got something to prove, and he does. Looks like Allen Walsh wasn't really just blowin' smoke up everyone's ass, he had a legitimate point as to who the starter should be. At $775k per this guy is not only a savior, he's a bargain, and he is the Contract Anomaly, (I wrote nothing about Halak). The fourth, bullshit intangible is that the Habs believe they can do it. Hell, its almost like they've already done the heavy lifting, except for that pesky Stanley Cup championship thingy.
The Flyers are another low seed, but are just proving that they have in them what everybody originally thought they had. The goaltending situation is just getting to be ri-goddamn-diculous. Gagne returning to lineup has been huge, Richards is playing like a captain, Giroux and vanReimsdyk are playing like crafty veterans, and Laviolette has been the rudder to the previously rudder-less ship. Its hard to go against the Flyers, especially after that 6-0 stomping, but I'm doing it. Like a fucking idiot. Grip Pick: Habs in 6.


#1 San Jose Sharks vs. #2 Chicago Blackhawks
I think this is going to be incredible series, just because of the depth of these teams on both offense and defense. I give the slight edge to the Sharks in goal, and I have very little to say after that. The Sharks will of course need all their depth to show up, the Hawks rarely have that problem, and maybe that's the deal breaker. But I'm sticking with it, like a fucking idiot. Grip Pick: Sharks in 6.


One vs. two, seven vs. eight. I get this funny feeling like it'll either be one and eight to get through, or two and seven, I don't know why. Its no longer predictable. You've got three backup netminders in the final four, killing it right now. That's pretty fucking wild, especially considering the argument about top flite goaltenders, while the likes of Brodeur, Luongo, Miller, and Fleury are sitting at home right now, and last year's Vezina winner was riding the pine this postseason.

Conference Final Predictions

Since I'm late as shit I'll just do it quick and dirty.

Western Conference

Sharks in 6

Eastern Conference

Habs in 6

I'll be back to elaborate this post when I have the opportunity.

Unbelievable?

Just like life, the postseason always brings unpredictability. I mean, we all try to pick the winners from the losers, but rare is the occasion where all the pieces fall into place. And if it was all that predictable it wouldn't be all that much fun, would it? This entire season has presented some off the wall ideas that no one thought possible or conceivable. Take for example Philadelphia's goaltending situation, the long running joke since the days of Ronny Hextall...

Boucher, Cechmanek, Esche, Burke, Hackett, Niittymaki, Biron, with a trifecta of Emery, to Leighton, back to Boucher, only now to come back to Leighton. Not to mention a couple of dashes of the Beezer, Dom Roussell, and Garth Snow thrown in the pot as well. Philly was predicted to do it all this year before the season started by the experts, and that was with Emery between the pipes on a one-year "tryout" back from the KHL. Emery went down with a muscle injury in the abdomen that had to be surgically repaired, only to learn about an avascular necrosis condition in his hips that's literally put his career in jeopardy. Leighton was picked up on a waivers to backup Boucher, who was Emery's backup at the time. About two weeks later, Boucher was shelfed with a hand injury that put Leighton in the #1 spot. Leighton played admirably in that stretch, starting in the Winter Classic, and more importantly keeping the Flyers in the hunt. Towards the end of the season, Leighton went down with a high ankle sprain, and Boucher returned to the nets in a critcal time to assure a postseason berth, earning a shootout win in the last game of the season. Boucher was a crucial factor in smacking the #2 seed Devils out of the first round in five games, and was playing well in the second round series against Boston until he suffered this shitty injury to his knees. Leighton took over early in the second of that game, preserving the shutout win and keeping the Flyers in it. It'll be quite the story for the Flyers if they were to win four straight and move on to the Conference Finals despite all the goaltending injuries, coaching changes and dysfunctional locker room.

The race for those final playoff spots in the East came down to the wire with Boston, Philly, and Montreal taking the last three seats, and all three pulling off first round upsets to advance. The Boston/Buffalo matchup was evenly matched and could have gone either way, but it was the Montreal Canadiens over the powerhouse Washington Capitals that really shocked the hockey-watching world. The Habs took it to the Caps and defeated them in seven games with a dogged effort, and speedy couterpunching that is also working in the second round matchup against the defending Cup champs. Grinding it out with a never-say-die attitude, not to mention an incredible effort from Jaroslav Halak in net has been the reason for the Montreal success as they force the Pens into a Game 7 on Wednesday night. For a team that wasn't a sure bet to make it to the dance at season's end, becoming the team that knocks off the #1 seed Capitals, and defending Champs to advance to the Conference Finals would be more than quite an achievement.

The San Jose Sharks are advancing to the Western Conference Finals for the second time in franchise history. Did anyone believe that statement to be true at any point during the regular season and even the first round? It took six, very close games to defeat the young Avalanche who returned to the playoffs after an abyssmal season last year, and only five to defeat the defending Conference Champs and perennial contending Red Wings. Exercising the demons that have previously plagued this lineup of playoff failure, they'll still need to win eight more to really prove the doubters wrong, but the fact that they've gotten over the big red hump that is Detroit has to say something.

Vancouver has put their best team together since the early '90s and it still may not be enough considering the Canadian pressure to win and the inconsistencies from game to game. In Game 1 they jumped out and shocked the Hawks at the United Center, taking the wind out of their sails. In Game 2, they employed the same tactic, getting two quick ones before giving another back by taking their foot off the gas, and allowing the Hawks to get three unanswered goals in the third. In Games 3 and 4, they allowed the Blackhawks to get to them, and completely lost their composure and any type of hold in the series going down 3 games to 1. But a collected team showed up on Mother's Day, with Luongo finally looking comfortable making saves, and yeoman effort from the rest of the Canucks. And now the series shifts back to Vancouver, where the away team has been more successful than the home team. The question is, which team will show up? The Blackhawks have been the same team every night, Toews and Kane provide the offense, Byfuglien plants his ass in the crease, Keith and Seabrook fire at will, and the rest of the agitators do what they do. The Canucks have ranged from skilled contender to whining bitches, and they've put themselves in a win-or-die position. Maybe that's the situation they do best in, coming from behind.

An All-Time Low

Koharski: 'Did you see it Steph?'

Auger: 'Non, I was thinking about Alex Burrows. I can't wait to get back at him.'

Cormier: 'Don, this is what happened... His stick came up in the follow through of the shot. How did you not see it, they were right in front of you? Don? Are you listening to me?'

Koharski: 'I want sprinkles on mine.'

The officiating in the postseason this year has hit levels of stupidity that science thought man was incapable of. Normally the refs have the 'let them play' mentality happening with very little in the way of calls to keep the governing body out of the games as much as possible, and that's the way we've all grown to like it. Even most knuckle-draggers seem to pick up on the concept of cleaning up their act in their very limited ice-time so that their team doesn't suffer the wrath of the postseason powerplay. And the play flows, with few whistles, continuous action, with anger and hostility flowing towards your opponent and the more retarded members of your team when they pull some bonehead manuever. But now the zebras have stepped in to take some of that heat, like rodeo clowns grazing the view of a bull's mad dash towards his last rider.

I have never seen so many penalties called in the postseason, and we're not even through the second round yet. A record number of 'Too Many Men' bench minors handed out, and so many ticky-tack bullshit calls that waivers from rigid regular season whistles to blatant daydreaming from the guys with orange waterwings. And what makes it worse is that they're missing infractions that should be called, and go "unnoticed" or not warranted of a call.

First off, lets take this 'Too Many Men' call down a peg or two. 'Too Many' should be saved for when there are six attackers on the ice in the play, plus a goaltender. It should not be called when a team is in the middle of a line change and the opposing team fires it along the boards in front of their bench. That is bullshit. It should not be called when a player comes off the bench, realizes that there's too many on, and jumps off. This is of course within reason. If the sixth doesn't get in the play, and hasn't even gotten past the redline before he jumps off, no call. If he's halfway across the sheet, looking for a pass up ice, and being screamed at to get off, then by all means, call it. Yes, these guys are professionals but lets keep this within reason.

What's another one? The composite stick debate. To everyone who's whining about getting rid of composite sticks get over it, they're not going to go away. Considering the assets it brings to the crappiest of shots, there's no way they'll be overwhelmed by the weak durability argument, especially in the professional realm where competition is at the highest level, and every little edge counts. The only people with warrant to complain about it are the beer leaguers who are shelling out hard-earned money to buy a new stick only to have it busted by some retarded asshole who's only defensive play is to chop your hands.
But back to the playoff penalty aspect, if you slash a guy's stick and it breaks, that's a slash. It should be treated the same way a trip on a breakaway is called. If you get the puck first, its legal. Guys cross-checking the opposition only to have it fold on them holding the evidence in their hands feels as stupid as they look. Two minutes, go sit down.

It doesn't really matter, there's no winning this argument, just like you've never seen a penalty call turned over due to a player complaining about a call. Everyone hates referees because they have an impossible job, and they're never going to make everyone happy, because everyone has their own differing opinions. I have no problem with a game called with penalties if the penalties are warranted and deserved. But you have to admit the officiating this postseason has been poor at best, and definetely a little suspect. Not of conspiracy of course, but of parity.

2nd Round Predictions

Who would have thought the East would take a big dump like that? Only got Pittsburgh right in that Conference but also picked the right number of games. Whoopty friggin' do. But in the West I was pretty damn good, getting all four teams right, and getting both Chicago and Vancouver in the right number of games. So 5 for 8 in picks, and 3 for 8 in games which are the toughest to pick. Not half bad, could be a hell of a lot worse. Then again I'd like to see who actually picked the 6th, 7th, and 8th seeds in the East to advance.

As for the pool, I typically picked the second highest point-getter on each team, except for Shea Weber who was a few behind leaders Legwand and Erat, Doan who was well behind Lombardi with the injury, but Drew Doughty was the top point producer for the Kings, and Stastny and Yip were tied in playoff pool points. Alfredsson was just behind Cullen, Vanek was just behind Pominville by an assist, Parise in back of Kovalchuk, and Backstrom behind Ovechkin by a goal. So all in all, not half bad, finished the first round with 111 points, thanks to both Luongo and Fleury getting through the first round (hopefully further).

Anyway, on to the Grip Picks...

Eastern Conference
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #8 Montreal Canadiens
Well I was dead wrong about the Habs picking the Caps to roll over them in 5, but I knew Halak would be the key to stealing games from Washington. I just thought it would be one game and not four. But the Pens have been here as recently as last year, and they seemed to dispense Ottawa effortlessly. I expect Halak to give them trouble, but I think the Pens will solve him to head on to the Conference Finals. Grip Pick: Pens in 6.

#6 Boston Bruins vs. #7 Philadelphia Flyers
Once again, I severely underestimated the Flyers, who appeared to be limping into a postseason against the #2 seeded Devils. The Devils were worthless, and the Flyers played strong, passioned playoff hockey. It took the postseason for them to turn into the team everyone thought they would be this season. The Sabres/Bruins matchup was the closest series to call I think, and it could have easily gone either way. I think Vanek's injury dented Buffalo's chances early on, but I don't know if he and Miller would have been able to beat the Bruins alone. The Bruins on the other hand, looked like the team from last year, playing good but not great. They got it done against the Sabres, but I think the Flyers have the fire lit right now. They've had the longest layoff, so it could start slow for them. Grip Pick: Flyers in 7.


Western Conference
#1 San Jose Sharks vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings
This will be the most overanalyzed series to date. San Jose, the playoff joke, against Detroit, the playoff machine. I wrote earlier about how the Sharks were sputtering like we've come to expect against the Avalanche, but there was a switch that flicked after that Game 5, or maybe even after Dan Boyle's OT winner for the Avs. The Olympic line underproduced, and it was the second line upstarts led by noted mouthbreather Joe Pavelski that got it done. Detroit is a team that knows how to get it done, but had a handful for about five of the seven games against inexperienced Phoenix. The Wings showed some age midway through the series, and then hit the gas like only they can in Game 7, I don't know if they have enough left in the tank. I'm going to once again step in the obvious pitfall and go with the Sharks. I think that Thornton and Marleau are going to turn it on, even though Heatley is injured, and Clowe/Pavelski/Setoguchi are going to continue rolling. I think Zetterberg is injured despite playing ridiculously well, Franzen is not 100%, and Holmstrom is just not cutting it, Mitchell and Blake are going to move his ass out of there. To rely on Datsyuk, Filppula, and the Detroit defense, not to mention a peppered Jimmy Howard, is going to be too much. Watch me eat my words. Grip Pick: Sharks in 6.

#2 Chicago Blackhawks vs. #3 Vancouver Canucks
Next to falling in the trap of the Shark, this is probably the hardest series to pick. Vancouver and Chicago are very evenly matched for this second round rematch from last year. The last one was brutal, no one expects this one to be any friendlier. Chicago had some trouble handling Trotz and his pesky Preds, but they eventually put them down. The same goes for Vancouver who had to work to get past a very young, and promising Kings team. The difference in Chicago... For the good, they have Hossa, is a proven playoff performer if not a Cup curse. For the bad, they don't have Khabby, they have Niemi who's played well but has holes, and Huet, who has holes. Their lineup is virtually unchanged, with the exception of Cam Barker swapped for an injured Kim Johnsson. The difference in Vancouver... For the good, they have a much more solid forward core, with the Sedin's having career bests, and improved second line scoring from Kesler and Burrows. The bad... Luongo's been shaky, but rebounded, and the defense is severely beaten up missing key personnel like Willie Mitchell, and even Brad Lukowich. It has felt all year that the Hawks were owed this shot at the Cup, instead of putting in the work to earn it. Maybe it was too much fun, and making it look to easy winning made it appear that way. I just think Vancouver is going to be better prepared to handle Chicago, having first hand experience playing them last year, warming up with Los Angeles, a very similar team to Chicago, and I think Luongo is moving in right direction in terms of great and awful. I expect the Vancouver offence to pick apart, and probably chase Niemi. Of course, it could just be that I picked the Canucks to go all the way at the beginning of the year, and I'm sticking to my guns. Grip Pick: Nucks in 7.

So that's it, the predictions for the second round. I feel a lot less confident with this batch than the first round, but that's normal considering the competition gets stiffer. For the pool, I've still got my goalies, Patty Kane, Johan Franzen, Patty Marleau, Zdeno Chara, Andrei Markov, and Jeff Carter's out with an injury, for who knows how long.

Round Two. Fight!

Musical Chairs

Photoshop hack job, yeeeah. Do you know how hard it is to find images of players from head to toe in street clothes? Its a bitch. But I think this accurately portrays the current situation of the playoff musical chairs...

Pronger's acting like God on Earth, Crosby looks like his taking a shit with his game face on as "Gentle" Joe playfully hooks him, while Luongo looks on nervously, and those are your seated quarterfinalists. Ovie is moving as quickly as he can around the chairs to make sure he gets a seat, while Zetterberg (or Jared Leto at a movie premier) shows Bryzy the way to play the game while wearing what one can only assume was several rugs from the motherland that were sewn together to make a shirt. Crunchy, as confident as ever, strides to the next available seat, while Trotz attempts to keep Big Z from eating him. On second thought, maybe they're both trying to eat him. Big Daddy Kane makes nice with the bigger boys, while Jesus Price is getting his drink on. Trust me, he's got a drink back there. Probably a smoke in the other.

This really detracts from the real purpose of this post, of which I've now completely forgotten after screwing around with that crap.

They Did It?
The Sharks are passed the first round, and I can hear the sigh of relief from the Bay Area. There was something that happened to that team in that overtime of Game 4. Maybe it was the sight of Douglas Murray actually trying to move up ice, or maybe it was even earlier, like when Dan Boyle dumped it into his own net. Game 5 was the type of game we were expecting all series, all out dominance of the Avs. And they got their collective shit together within the 60 minutes of Game 6 to come back and win it, and get out of a series they thought would be two games shorter. Maybe it was Craig Anderson standing on his head that kept the Avalanche competitive, and running with the Sharks. But they're on to the next round, and you can wait until then to continue pulling your hair out. Grip Pick: Sharks in 5.

Philadelphia upset Jersey to everyone's surprise but in a real "eh" kind of series, maybe its because the Devils flopped in so few games. I looked around, no one picked the Flyers in this series except for the Flyer faithful. Everyone's pick at the beginning of the season to no one's pick at the end of it. Amazing. Just a question, what's worse? Losing in the closing seconds to Carolina last year, or receiving a toolshed beating by #7 seeded cross-state rival this year? Grip Pick: Devils in 5. At least I got the number of games right.

Pittsburgh defeated Ottawa to no one's surprise. At least, after Game 3. Ottawa just always seems to be a middling team, even when they went to the SC Finals, they were sent out on a rail. The Pens look strong, and on a march back to the Finals. Grip Pick: Pens in 6. That's a two-fer.

Vancouver beat out the Kings in what looked like an evenly matched series through the first four games. The Kings gave them a run for their money, but much like the Sharks, the Canuck offense didn't get going until later in the series. The Sedins' are on their usual hum, while Kesler and Burrows will hope to get it going after empty net confidence builders. Grip Pick: Canucks in 6. Bingo bango.

Forgone Conclusions?
Do you really expect Montreal to force a Game 7? I don't, but then again I didn't expect the Caps to have this much trouble putting them down either. Grip Pick: Caps in 5. Come on don't make me look like an idiot like Philadelphia did.

Boston and Buffalo is an ultimate grudge match, and I wish I had been watching more closely to fully enjoy it. I now expect it to go to seven. Grip Pick: Sabres in 6. The Eastern Conference could really make me look stupid.

Nashville, that fucking plucky underdog always seems to give grief to top seeds. They at least won a game on the road in the playoffs this season, so that's something to build off of. I expect the Hawks to end it tonight. Grip Pick: Hawks in 6.

I love the fact that it all comes down to one game for Phoenix and Detroit. Both teams should thrive in this situation making it an epic game. Like I said, I'd love to be wrong in this one, halfway there. Grip Pick: Wings in 6. Go Dogs!

Anyone With Half a Brain...

Detroit may be called Hockeytown, but its fans have to be the dumbest mutts this side of the border.

Valteri Flippula's shot about halfway through the first period squeaked past Bryzgalov and, as Pierre McGuire said, "did a dirty little dance along the goal line," but it never crossed the goal line. The referee on the scene made the washout signal right away, and the Coyotes continued with the play. Once the play was blown dead, after a chorus of 'Boos' rained down from the Joe Lou seats, the play was shown on the screen above center ice. Originally, the ref wasn't even going to look at the play, he was sticking with his decision, that was until he glanced up at the replay, and the faithful red encouraged him otherwise.

He headed over to the scorers' table to confer with the replay officials upstairs, (I don't even think he looked at it), and immediately indicated a faceoff in Detroit's zone, (after the icing to end the play). The boobirds returned until they could muster up the energy to get 'Bullshit' going.

Its one thing to try to "convince" the referees into making a call, its another to prove what kind of fucking idiots pay to wear the red and white.

(Ed. note: I'll try and find a replay of it as soon as one's available.)